Write a short research paper for a peer-reviewed research paper that pertains to the week’s assigned reading.

Write a short research paper for a peer-reviewed research paper that pertains to the week’s assigned reading.  This will be a detailed summary of the research paper and what you gained from the research.  Each week, you will find an article/peer-reviewed research paper that pertains to the week’s assignment.

Please find the attached documents

ITS 832 CHAPTER 4 POLICY MAKING AND MODELLING IN A COMPLEX WORLD

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY

DR. JORDON SHAW

INTRODUCTION

• Policy Making and Modelling in a Complex World

• Complexity

• Managing Complex Systems

• Modelling for Complex Systems

COMPLEXITY

• System composed of multiple interacting elements

• Possible behavioral states can combine in ways that are hard to predict

• Many complex systems in the physical world

• Adaptive capacity of organisms allow for long-term survival in complex systems

• Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)

DOUBLE PENDULUM EXAMPLE

COMMON MISTAKES IN MANAGING COMPLEX SYSTEMS

• Quantification • Policy is biased towards easily quantifiable features • Most often, monetary quantification • Commonly overlooks important non-quantifiable aspects

• Compartmentalization • Attempts to simplify complex social systems • Large systems are split into smaller systems • Likely to miss interactions between smaller systems

• Spillover effect

COMPLEXITY IN POLICY MAKING

• Common approaches • Instrumental

• Choosing between a set of possible policies

• Evaluated based on past effectiveness

• Requires • Large enough pool of available strategies

• Effective assessment if effectiveness

• Representational • Series of models

• Each is assessed on its ability to predict observed behavior

INSTRUMENTAL APPROACH

REPRESENTATIONAL APPROACH

AGENT-BASED MODELS

• Represents individuals as separate models

• Agents interact through a network

• Distributed nature allows for realistic interactions

• SIMSOC

• Simulated Society

• Modeling projects repository

SUMMARY

• Complex systems are difficult to model

• Interactions can be unpredictable

• Common mistakes in modeling complex systems • Quantification

• Compartmentalization

• Two common approaches to complex system modeling • Instrumental

• Representational

• Agent-based modelin

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