Write a 500-word post contrasting quantification and compartmentalization.
Write a 500-word post contrasting quantification and compartmentalization. Provide ideas to overcome these oversimplifications. Also, respond to another student’s post providing additional information.
Policy Making and Modelling in a Complex World Information Technology in a Global Economy
Introduction
Policy Making and Modelling in a Complex World
Complexity
Managing Complex Systems
Modelling for Complex Systems
Complexity
System composed of multiple interacting elements
Possible behavioral states can combine in ways that are hard to predict
Many complex systems in the physical world
Adaptive capacity of organisms allow for long-term survival in complex systems
Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
Common Mistakes in Managing Complex Systems
Quantification
Policy is biased towards easily quantifiable features
Most often, monetary quantification
Commonly overlooks important non-quantifiable aspects
Compartmentalization
Attempts to simplify complex social systems
Large systems are split into smaller systems
Likely to miss interactions between smaller systems
Spillover effect
Complexity in Policy Making
Common approaches
Instrumental
Choosing between a set of possible policies
Evaluated based on past effectiveness
Requires
Large enough pool of available strategies
Effective assessment if effectiveness
Representational
Series of models
Each is assessed on its ability to predict observed behavior
Agent-based Models
Represents individuals as separate models
Agents interact through a network
Distributed nature allows for realistic interactions
SIMSOC
Simulated Society
Modeling projects repository
Summary
Complex systems are difficult to model
Interactions can be unpredictable
Common mistakes in modeling complex systems
Quantification
Compartmentalization
Two common approaches to complex system modeling
Instrumental
Representational
Agent-based modeling