Write a 500-word post contrasting quantification and compartmentalization.

Write a 500-word post contrasting quantification and compartmentalization.  Provide ideas to overcome these oversimplifications. Also, respond to another student’s post providing additional information.

Policy Making and Modelling in a Complex World Information Technology in a Global Economy

Introduction

Policy Making and Modelling in a Complex World

Complexity

Managing Complex Systems

Modelling for Complex Systems

Complexity

System composed of multiple interacting elements

Possible behavioral states can combine in ways that are hard to predict

Many complex systems in the physical world

Adaptive capacity of organisms allow for long-term survival in complex systems

Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)

Common Mistakes in Managing Complex Systems

Quantification

Policy is biased towards easily quantifiable features

Most often, monetary quantification

Commonly overlooks important non-quantifiable aspects

Compartmentalization

Attempts to simplify complex social systems

Large systems are split into smaller systems

Likely to miss interactions between smaller systems

Spillover effect

Complexity in Policy Making

Common approaches

Instrumental

Choosing between a set of possible policies

Evaluated based on past effectiveness

Requires

Large enough pool of available strategies

Effective assessment if effectiveness

Representational

Series of models

Each is assessed on its ability to predict observed behavior

Agent-based Models

Represents individuals as separate models

Agents interact through a network

Distributed nature allows for realistic interactions

SIMSOC

Simulated Society

Modeling projects repository

Summary

Complex systems are difficult to model

Interactions can be unpredictable

Common mistakes in modeling complex systems

Quantification

Compartmentalization

Two common approaches to complex system modeling

Instrumental

Representational

Agent-based modeling

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